Analysis of the recent non-light season in the photovoltaic industry

The recent unseasonable situation in the photovoltaic industry is mainly due to the following reasons:

1) In 2011, global inventory stocks digestion was more optimistic than expected. At the same time, downstream developers thought that the price of PV modules bottomed out. Therefore, there was a clear demand for inventory in the first quarter, and the sensitivity of corporate orders to demand increased.

2) The German subsidy adjustment program has not been set yet. The industry is generally concerned about cutting solar PV subsidy ahead of schedule in April to bring forward the seizure.

3) U.S. market catches up with the last train of the PV dual-anticipation day;

4) Driven by other emerging markets. It now appears that the first three warming factors will leave the market before the end of February, and the market may once again be calm.

The slight upward adjustment of the recent PV upstream price is a rational return of the “oversold” price in the destocking phase in 2011, but the industry surplus and corporate profitability will not improve for the time being: First, the excess capacity of 50-60 GW will not be “hard” in the short term. "Withdrawal, this suppresses the rebound in profitability. Secondly, the strong demand in the short term is an overdraft for the full-year demand. The annual market growth is still within 10%.

We had done a round of telephone surveys before the Spring Festival, and in the weekly report of January 16th, “The surplus will continue and the PV has not been reversed”, suggesting the above market changes in the first quarter.

Trend, if you do not consider China's anti-dumping against the United States, the average price increase of polysilicon should be below 35 US dollars / Kg, and may subsequently fall; wafer prices began to rise slightly after more than one quarter of loss management, Until close to the break-even line; short-term weakness in component prices, indicating that terminal supply and inventory pressures still exist, mid-stream companies' profitability may be suppressed by both the upstream and downstream.

In 2012, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market under the current policy situation. We believe that the market's risk of falling year-on-year and the magnitude of the decline are relatively large, while the likelihood of upwards-than-expectation may be smaller and smaller. Since the PV market has initially had a certain volume, only one more Italy or Germany will emerge, and the market growth will have enough flexibility, otherwise the fundamentals will hardly change.