Apple should launch low-cost MacBook Air
According to foreign media reports, according to foreign media reports, JP Morgan analyst Rod Hall believes that Apple has missed a scale due to the lack of notebook products at a price of 500-1,000 US dollars (approximately RMB 3075-6150). A market opportunity of US$63 billion (approximately RMB377.4 billion). Hal's report shows that about one-third of the 315 million PCs sold in 2013 were notebooks at this price point.
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Keyboard Fantasy Apple's lowest-priced notebook is the MacBook Air with a starting price of 999 US dollars (approximately 6,143 yuan), so Apple basically has no notebook products at this price point. Hal's solution is: configure the keyboard iPad.
The iPad that configures the keyboard is not a reliable computing device. iPad users can already use the Bluetooth keyboard, which includes some keyboards that are integrated with the iPad case. Hal's proposal is not new.
To some extent, the notebook market with a price below $1,000 has been affected by the iPad. Remember the netbook? After the launch of the iPad, netbook sales plummeted in 2011. The iPad and other tablets have already affected the sales of low-end notebooks, and the current market landscape shows this. According to IDC, the global shipment of tablet PCs in the fourth quarter of 2013 was 76.9 million units, and PC shipments including desktops and notebooks were approximately 82 million units.
Since the advent of the iPad, Windows fans have become a keyboard fetish: Computers without a keyboard are not practical. Even Microsoft has embedded a keyboard in the Surface Tablet Case to become a notebook product. Intel is vigorously promoting the two-in-one variant of the detachable keyboard.
I do not think the keyboard is useless. My point is that the fact does not prove the magic of the keyboard. In the approximately 100 million low-cost notebooks sold in 2013, the keyboard was not a decisive factor for users to purchase them. Therefore, adding a keyboard will not significantly increase iPad shipments.
Notebook Value Proposition This price-priced notebook has two important differences compared to tablet PCs. They are equipped with Intel or AMD processors and usually have higher processing power than ARM processors including the Apple A7; notebooks are usually equipped with Nvidia or AMD graphics chips and have graphics capabilities that exceed those of the tablet. Notebooks are also typically configured with a full-featured desktop operating system.
These notebooks usually lack excellent design, lighter weight, or high-resolution display, but their processing power is very powerful. They can run Microsoft Office-level software, edit videos, and play realistic games. The rate is lower - typically 1366 pixels x 768 pixels. There is no better choice for users who want to buy the most powerful mobile computing devices.
Consumers who have purchased such notebooks are already considering alternatives and have discovered their deficiencies. Although Apple has "respected" the detachable keyboard, there are a large number of Android variants on the market and consumers are not interested in them. Adding a keyboard does not change the iPad’s value in the eyes of these notebook buyers.
Low price MacBook Air?
Hal pointed out that Apple's use of the MacBook series of products in the high-end notebook market dominated the market share of high-end notebook in North America as high as 68%, so if Apple launched a price of about $ 500 MacBook, will also be able to achieve considerable success. However, profitability is one of the problems faced by Apple. Apple cannot tolerate the profitability of the PC industry. In the most recent quarter, HP's gross margin was 22.8%, while Apple's was up 37.9%. It is expected that Apple may push the MacBook with a polycarbonate body. Apple had done this before. As long as Intel continues to purchase Intel Core i5 or i7 processors from Intel, reducing the cost of the chassis will not really solve the problem of profitability. Intel’s file shows that the price of the entry-level MacBook Air processor chip is 315 US dollars (about 1937 yuan).
Apple can reduce the cost by purchasing processor chips from AMD. However, AMD processors use a 28-nm process and Intel uses a 22-nm process. Apple may not be able to accept the energy consumption of AMD processors. AMD foundry partner Global Foundries said that this year will be put into production of 14-nanometer process chips, the problem of high chip energy consumption will cease to exist, but it is not yet clear when the 14-nm process AMD chip can be marketed.
Another possibility is that Apple ported Mac OS X to ARM-based processors, such as the quad-core A7. This topic has been discussed many times before, but it has not been possible until A7 came out. When Apple developed iOS, it optimized Mac OS X based on the capabilities of ARM processors. Earlier versions of iOS do not support multitasking, and there are strict limits on the processor and memory usage of a single application. The A7 proves that Apple has the ability to develop a processor that rivals Intel's Bay Trail. Bay Trail can run Windows 8.1.
The combination of the Mac OS X quad-core A7 chipset may result in a new generation of MacBook Air that is lighter, thinner, and has longer battery life, and at a lower price than its fellow brothers with Intel chips. Market research firm IHS estimates that the cost of the A7 chip in the iPhone 5s is $19 (approximately RMB117). Given the huge potential market for low-cost laptops and the price difference between ARM and Intel chips, Apple has the financial incentive to port Mac OS X to ARM.
Apple can learn from Microsoft's experience and lessons in porting Windows to ARM. By porting Windows to ARM, Microsoft created a completely new type of application (Modern UI or Windows Store application), but it is not compatible with traditional Windows applications. Traditional Windows applications cannot be ported directly to the Modern UI architecture.
Apple should provide developers with a simple method of porting their existing applications to ARM. Allowing developers to easily port applications requires a lot of effort from Apple, but it is worth paying more effort to quickly build the Mac OS X-ARM ecosystem.
In the past, people in the industry thought it would be a good opportunity to transplant some or all of their MacBook models to the ARM architecture. It is only necessary to wait until the ARM chip processing power is strong enough. This time is now ripe. For Apple, the Bay Trail version of the MacBook Air is a safer option, but ARM chips can make the MacBook Air price drop below $999.
If Apple plans to push the ARM version of Mac OS X this year, it should reveal some hurricane at the June Global Developer Conference. Developers need time to become familiar with new Xcode development tools, porting code, and testing applications. If not disclosed at the global developer conference, Apple will continue to bundle itself on Intel's chariot for at least the next year. Investors may even expect the MacBook Air version of the Bay Trail.