Research report: Apple's active iOS device active life expectancy of up to four years

According to data shared during Apple's fourth-quarter investor conference call, analysts believe that the average lifespan of active iOS devices exceeds four years. This suggests that users are keeping their iPhones and iPads for twice as long as it takes to upgrade them. Analyst Horace Dediu uncovered a rare piece of information in Apple’s recent earnings report: the number of active iOS devices has reached 1.3 billion, marking a 30% increase compared to two years ago. This is the first time Apple publicly disclosed such figures, which were initially released in January 2016 at 1 billion active devices.  Dediu calculated the average device lifespan by analyzing quarterly sales numbers alongside the total number of active iOS devices. He created a chart showing Apple's total device sales since Q2 2007, then plotted a curve representing the number of active devices. The area between these two lines represents the number of devices that have been retired over time. To determine the average lifespan of decommissioned devices in the most recent quarter, Dediu made an assumption about the number of retired devices—let’s call it “x”—and subtracted the current active device count (1.3 billion) from the assumed total. He then compared this with previous quarters’ sales data until the numbers aligned closely with the cumulative device sales.  In his second chart, Dediu illustrated the average device lifespan for each quarter based on the first graph. The data shows that since 2012, the average lifespan has steadily increased. By early 2017, it surpassed four years. This aligns with the introduction of the iPhone 6, when many users were still using older models like the iPhone 5 and 5S.

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