Research report: Apple's active iOS device active life expectancy of up to four years

According to data shared during Apple's fourth-quarter investor call, analysts have estimated that the average lifespan of active iOS devices exceeds four years. This suggests that iPhones and iPads typically remain in use for twice the time it takes for users to upgrade to newer models. In a recent earnings report, Apple disclosed a rare but significant figure: 1.3 billion active iOS devices, marking a 30% increase from two years prior. This is the first time Apple has publicly shared such data since January 2016, when the number stood at 1 billion. Analyst Horace Dediu analyzed this data by comparing quarterly device sales with the number of active iOS devices. He created a chart showing total Apple devices sold since Q2 2007, alongside a curve representing active devices. The gap between the two lines indicates how many devices have been retired over time. To calculate the average lifespan of decommissioned devices in the most recent quarter, Dediu made an assumption—let’s say “x”—and subtracted the 1.3 billion active devices from the total. By comparing this to previous quarters' sales, he adjusted his estimate until it aligned with the cumulative number of devices sold. His second chart illustrates the average device life expectancy per quarter. It shows that since 2012, the average lifespan has steadily increased. By early 2017, the average reached over four years, a trend that can be linked to the iPhone 6 launch. At that time, many users were still using older models like the iPhone 5 and 5S, indicating a slower replacement cycle. This analysis highlights not only Apple’s strong user retention but also the growing longevity of its devices, which could signal a shift in consumer behavior and product design.

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