The ever-changing wind power and solar photovoltaic power generation

In the past two years, technological advances in wind power and solar power generation have been accelerating, costs have fallen more than expected, domestic industrial capacity has been catching up, and the technology base and industrial foundation for large-scale application have been established. Internationally, the transition of the developed countries to renewable energy has become very clear. Japan’s nuclear accidents have accelerated the pace of transformation. China should take these new changes into consideration when formulating development plans and regulating production capacity.

Wind power and solar power generation technology are changing with each passing day. Application deployment accelerates the development of wind power technology and manifests itself as the large-scale and intelligent fan. The international wind power mainstream models have been increased from 0.5-1 MW in 2000 to 1.5-2.5 MW. 5-6 MW wind turbines have started production and 10-20 MW have been deployed in research and development. Global wind turbines have been added in 2010. The average power reached 1665 kilowatts. China's mainstream models have increased from 0.6-1 MW in 2005 to 1.5-2 MW, 3 MW of offshore wind power has been installed in batches, and 5-6 MW of wind turbines have been produced offline. The average power of new wind turbines has increased from 2005 to 2005. The 849 kW was raised to 1,467 kW in 2010. With the increase of stand-alone capacity to increase operating efficiency and component performance, new motor drive technology, intelligent control technology, power grid access technology, and power generation forecasting technology continue to emerge, making wind power more reliable and easier for power grid access. Accompanied by rapid technological advances, large-scale applications were achieved. In 2010, 39.4 million kilowatts of new wind power capacity was installed globally, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 200 million kilowatts. Compared with 2007, the cumulative installed capacity doubled and is expected to double again by 2014 to reach 400 million. kilowatt. Wind power has become the main new power source. In 2010, 1/3 of the world's new installed capacity came from wind power. After the financial crisis, the United States and Europe accelerated their transition to renewable energy, with more than half of their newly added electricity coming from wind power. From the total amount of electricity supply, wind power accounted for 5.3% of the EU's total electricity supply in 2010, of which 6.7% in Germany, 16% in Spain, and 20.1% in Denmark generated electricity from wind power.

The conversion efficiency of solar photovoltaic power generation has been significantly improved, and the highest conversion efficiency of commercial crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells can reach 20%. More importantly, there has been a major breakthrough in polysilicon production technology. In the world, the integrated power consumption of polysilicon dropped from 240 kWh/kg in 2000 to 120 kWh/kg, and the integrated power consumption of benchmarking company OCI Korea has dropped to 100 kWh/kg. From the domestic point of view, the average integrated power consumption for polysilicon preparation in the past four years fell by 50% to 160 kWh/kg, and the comprehensive power consumption of GCL-Poly dropped from 163 kWh/kg in 2008 to 100 kWh/kg in 2008. . Energy consumption from polysilicon to silicon wafers, photovoltaic cells, modules, and system production can be recovered through battery power generation within 2-3 years. For photovoltaic cells with a lifetime of up to 25 years, the net renewable energy factor is as high as 0.8. -0.9, higher in renewable energy technologies. In addition, breakthroughs have also been made in the recycling of toxic byproducts, and a closed loop can basically be realized. The state of high energy consumption and high pollution of photovoltaic cells has been greatly improved. Photovoltaic power generation applications are also accelerating. In 2010, the world’s new photovoltaic power generation was 16 million kilowatts, cumulative installed capacity reached 3,790 kilowatts, and the average annual growth rate was 38.8% over the past 10 years. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2050, photovoltaic power generation will account for 11% of the total electricity demand. .

Solar thermal power generation suddenly rises. Although solar thermal power generation has a limited application area because of its large floor space, it has the advantages of high conversion efficiency and strong power grid regulation, and has been rapidly developed in recent years. In 2010, Spain installed more than 500,000 kilowatts of CSP power generation and plans to reach 2.5 million kilowatts in 2013 and 10 million kilowatts in 2020. The United States has 10,260,000 kilowatts of solar thermal construction plans in the next few years. The US Department of Energy aims to reduce the cost of solar thermal power generation to 10 cents/kWh in 2015, which will be competitive as a peak load; it will fall to 5 in 2020. Cents/kWh, competitive as a base load. The International Energy Agency expects that CSP will account for 11.7% of global electricity generation by 2050.

The cost of wind power and solar power generation fell more than expected, and the prospect of cheaper Internet access became clearer. Due to technological progress, economies of scale, and increased competition, wind power costs have dropped significantly. The average global contract price for unit capacity (1 MW) of wind turbines in 2010 was 980,000 Euros, which was 7% lower than in 2009 and 19% lower than the 2007 peak price of 1.21 million Euros. In the resource-rich regions such as the United States and Sweden, the on-grid tariff for wind power is US$68/MWh (equivalent to 0.44 yuan/kWh), and the cost of power generation for coal-fired power plants is US$67/MWh (equivalent to 0.43 yuan/kWh). very close. From the domestic point of view, the price of wind turbines has fallen by 10% each year in the past five years, and has fallen by more than 40%. The price of wind turbines has dropped below 4,000 yuan/kW. Even considering the increase in infrastructure costs such as land acquisition and towers, the overall cost of wind power installations has also dropped by 10%. At present, the cost of wind power generation in well-resourced areas has been lower than 0.5 yuan/kWh, and the average on-grid electricity price of thermal power in the country has reached 0.44 yuan/kWh, if we consider that thermal power still has 5-6 points/kWh of electricity price need to be channeled. The price of wind power and thermal power is already very close.

The cost of polysilicon production and photovoltaic power generation is even lower. The international polysilicon price reached a peak of US$470/kg at its peak in April 2008, and then continued to decline. In 2009, it dropped to US$40-50/kg, and the current price is back to the US$50-80/kg fluctuation range due to strong demand. In fact, the production cost of the international advanced manufacturers has dropped to 20-30 USD/kg, the average cost of domestic enterprises has dropped to around 40 USD/kg, and the cost of GCL-Poly has dropped from 50 USD/kg in the first quarter of 2009 to 2010. In the fourth quarter of the year, it was US$22.9/kg, which is expected to fall to US$18/kg in 2012. According to the current cost level, with proper profits at all stages, the cost of photovoltaic power generation can be reduced to 0.9 yuan/degree, which is a drop of 60% compared with 2008. Industry experts generally expect that photovoltaic power generation will be competitive with thermal power before and after 2015.

China's wind power and solar photovoltaic industry has entered the world's forefront and has a large-scale industrial base. From the perspective of industrial scale, China's wind turbine production capacity was nearly 40 million kilowatts in 2010, with 18.93 million kilowatts of new installed capacity and 44.73 million kilowatts of cumulative installed capacity. The indicators are the world's first. The output of photovoltaic cells in China is 8 million kilowatts, which accounts for half of the world's total.

From the perspective of the completeness of the industry chain, significant progress has been made in the past two years. In the field of wind power, key components such as blades, gearboxes, generators, and control systems have been localized, and product quality has also improved. A complete industrial system integrating raw materials, components, complete machines, and service industries has taken shape. In the field of photovoltaic power generation, the situation in which raw materials are controlled by people has been improved. In 2010, the production of polysilicon exceeded 35,000 tons, and the import ratio fell to 50%. With the continuous release of new production capacity, it is expected that polysilicon will achieve supply and demand balance in 2012.

In terms of technical capabilities, it has already possessed certain independent innovation capabilities. Wind power has realized the conversion of high-power wind turbines from the introduction, digestion, and joint design to independent design. The export of megawatt wind turbines indicates that China's wind power design and manufacturing capacity has reached the international advanced level, and large-scale offshore wind power, direct-drive full power conversion The research and development of new-generation wind power technologies, such as flow technology, are also closely following the world's frontiers. In the field of photovoltaic power generation, Chinese enterprises have some unique technologies in the production of photovoltaic cells and modules, polysilicon production and waste recycling.

More importantly, the wind power and solar photovoltaic power generation industry has a number of outstanding companies with considerable scale. In the field of wind power manufacturing, Goldwind and Sinovel have ranked among the top five in the world. In the field of photovoltaic cells and photovoltaic modules, Wuxi Suntech, Tianwei Profit, and JA Solar are among the top 10 in the world. In the field of polysilicon production, Poly Group Xin and Jiangxi Seville will also rank among the top 10 in the world. Most of the above-mentioned enterprises are private enterprises and listed at home and abroad. These companies are most likely to lead the renewable energy industry in China as the next to the communications industry and have the same leadership with the world as Huawei and ZTE Corporation. The advantages of the industry.

The transformation trend of developed countries to renewable energy has become very clear. Japan's nuclear power accident has accelerated the pace of transformation. At present, 90% of China's photovoltaic cell production must be exported, and the stability of external demand is a common concern of the industry. From the perspective of short-term demand, the international renewable energy market may fluctuate, especially under the influence of policies. For example, affected by the adjustment of subsidies for photovoltaic power generation in Germany, Italy and the Czech Republic, after a rapid growth in the past few years, the European market will tend to grow steadily. This year and next year will be the low tide of the photovoltaic market, and the annual new installed capacity will be About 20 million kilowatts, it is expected that after 2012, with the start of the emerging markets of the United States, China, the Middle East and India, the world PV market will enter a new growth cycle.

From a long-term perspective, the consumption patterns and energy consumption levels in developed countries such as the United States and Europe have basically been locked in. To achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions, we must rely on the development of non-fossil energy such as renewable energy and hydropower and nuclear power. In the 10 years from 1999 to 2009, the EU’s energy consumption structure has undergone major changes. The share of renewable energy in total energy consumption has risen from 5% in 1999 to 9%, almost doubled, the European Parliament. In 2009, it is clearly stated that the proportion of renewable energy in 2020 will reach 20%. At the federal level, the United States puts forward the expected goal of 25% of clean energy in 2025. Several state governments have proposed more radical and more binding renewable energy development goals.

Japan’s nuclear accident has accelerated the pace of transition from developed countries to renewable energy. Japan has already given up its energy strategy of increasing the proportion of nuclear power from 30% to 50%, and has turned to accelerate the development of wind power and solar power. Germany and Switzerland have explicitly stopped the development of nuclear power, and may well cause a chain reaction in other countries. The United Kingdom has formulated an ambitious offshore wind power development plan. In 2020, offshore wind power will reach 20 million kilowatts, accounting for 19% of the total power demand.

At present, not only large quantities of photovoltaic cells have been exported, but the signs of large-scale export of wind power have begun to appear. Although only 13 turbines with a total output of 15.5 megawatts were exported in 2010, the gap between China's wind power technology and international advanced technologies is small, and there is a cost advantage of about 30%. Domestic supply of wind turbines is in excess of demand, and international wind power is ushering in new developments. In the case of an opportunity, exports are the trend of the times. Relevant departments should pay attention to the general trend of international renewable energy development and do a good job of policy support, especially when carrying out production capacity adjustment. It should be noted that changes in the external market and the increase in total demand brought about by China's competitiveness increase.