Is AI artificial intelligence the fourth "industrial revolution" to transform human society?

On November 28th, according to the British "Independent" website, the world is now so concerned about technology and innovation because people are eager to find solutions that can solve current economic, social and political problems. Although we need to solve many important problems, and technological innovations will continue to emerge in many fields, the fourth industrial revolution is not a reasonable expectation, and we should recognize the reality. The so-called "fourth industrial revolution" was widely publicized, but artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, etc. are not new things. These technologies not only breed many new problems, but also have limitations in economic effectiveness.

Is AI artificial intelligence the fourth "industrial revolution" to transform human society?

The theme of the 2016 World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos is the “fourth industrial revolution”. Professor Klaus Schwab, the founder of WEF, even rushed to publish a book that assembled the views of the public. He warned that the scale, speed and impact of new technologies are "so far-reaching". "There has never been a historical stage with huge prospects or potential dangers as it is now." The new technologies he refers to focus on artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous driving, 3D printing, blockchain (BlockChain) and biotechnology.

Participants in the forum believe that the current wave of technology will have a universal impact, and humanity will usher in a new phase of development and prosperity. In the history of mankind, technological progress is often closely related to the improvement of living standards. But we have reason to question whether this new stage of innovation will have a huge impact as expected.

The economist Robert Gordon defined these stages as: the first industrial revolution (1750–1830), the technological innovations were coal, steam engines, railways and textiles; the second industrial revolution (1870-1900) It mainly focuses on the research and development of electric power, internal combustion engines, modern communications, entertainment, petroleum and chemicals; the main research and development areas of the third industrial revolution (from 1960 to the present) are computers and telecommunications.

The impact of the ongoing innovation phase on economic activity depends on the following factors: the amount of change; the impact on development and productivity; the duration of innovation, the scope of expansion, and the long-term evolution. Professor Gordon found that the second industrial revolution had the most profound impact on productivity and living standards. The follow-up period of this revolution has lasted for more than 100 years and has fully exploited the potential of innovation.

Electricity and internal combustion engines can fully explain the scale of the revolution. Based on the existing science, electricity was put into commercial use in 1880. Since then, electricity has been the energy of choice and cannot be replaced by other sources of energy in terms of conversion efficiency, productivity, transportability, precise control of transmission and flexibility. The internal combustion engine and petroleum have transformed transportation and industry. By replacing animals or manpower, internal combustion engines improve the power and speed of the transportation industry, while reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

Crucially, these major innovations have directly and indirectly led to large-scale industries. Internal combustion engines have contributed to the popularity of automobiles, which in turn has driven the development and expansion of the steel, aluminum and rubber industries, the supply and distribution of gasoline and petroleum products, the infrastructure for vehicle maintenance, and the most important road systems. These industries are large in scale and create a large number of jobs.

By comparing the changes in the lives of ordinary people between the 1870s and 1970s and the 1970s to the present, we can clearly see how much the influence of the second industrial revolution is enormous, and the innovations at this stage have been fully developed. . Modern people realize that the world in 1970 is basically familiar with work, housing, health, energy, transportation, entertainment and household appliances. In contrast, people in 1970 felt that the world of 1870 was strange.

The large-scale changes brought about by the second industrial revolution may be unique. In the far-reaching impact on living standards, the future is unlikely to reappear.

The third industrial revolution (from 1960 to the present) was not as vigorous as people hoped. The fourth industrial revolution, which was widely publicized, was the continuation of the third industrial revolution. Many elements - artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology - are nothing new.

Technology optimists do not feel the fear of innovation slowing down. They also classify the group of distrustful technologies as those who strongly oppose mechanization and automation and try to hinder technological progress. They believe that the impact of recent technological changes will gradually be realized over time. They also believe that the current technological advancement is approaching the “singularity”, which is a hypothetical stage in which artificial intelligence will progress to a more advanced level than human intelligence and have a tremendous impact on humans and society.

But tech pessimists point to the weaknesses of current technology, such as big data, robotics, 3D manufacturing, and the development of new drugs.

Big data technology uses inductive statistics and nonlinear system tools to measure and build the internal relationships of large data sets and to summarize trends. However, this technology has not been fully confirmed. Its predictive power is extremely unstable, and the data characteristics it reflects are actually some assumptions that are not fully understood in practice.

So far, big data technology has been used primarily for epidemiology, assessing insurance risks, and targeted marketing. Big data requires a lot of money and there is a lot of risk in judging accuracy. It faces the same problems as all analytics, and more data only breeds new problems, rather than providing solutions.

Big data is also facing problems in accessing information. Concerns about privacy and security have increased the use of encryption technology, which has led to the transition of certain products and business models from open to closed, and big data technologies have been able to collect raw data from these products and business models.

Big data is not a new technology. It originated from security and surveillance technologies widely used by intelligence agencies such as the National Security Agency. Recurring smart faults show that getting data is easier than reading the data. The technology that can capture massive amounts of data is growing faster than analytical techniques.

Big data is similar to the Tower of Babel Library in Jorge-Louis-Borges, where all the knowledge of the world is stored. However, it is as chaotic as a maze, and no word can be understood.

Robotics has been widely used in manufacturing, especially in the manufacture of motor vehicles. Robots designed for healthcare are attracting more and more attention. Despite the continuous advancement of robotics, their capabilities in terms of power source, motion, manipulation, and sensory perception are still limited, and their application in unconventional tasks is still limited. Even simple and routine task robots such as sorting and washing are not competent, and such tasks can be easily accomplished by humans.

Twenty years ago, people mentioned the technology of 3D manufacturing. 3D technology refers to the manufacturing process in which a material layer is used to create a three-dimensional object under computer control. It reduces the cost of manufacturing a single or small-scale product.

Science and technology pessimists believe that technology has caused many problems. Technologies such as internal combustion engines and fossil fuels have had a huge impact, but they have caused a lot of damage to the environment and must be addressed.

New technologies have also spawned many unexpected problems. Cyber ​​attacks, malware, and computer viruses cause confusion, data or financial loss, and public disclosure of personal privacy or political affairs. The cost of stopping such damage is quite high. Machine fraud programs have falsified 25% of online ads, leaving advertisers with more than $6 billion in spending that doesn't deliver the desired marketing results.

Abuse of antibiotics increases bacterial resistance. A 2014 study in the United Kingdom found that by 2050, infections caused by increased bacterial resistance could cause 10 million deaths worldwide each year, with a potential economic loss of $100 trillion and a drop in GDP of 3.5. %.

The pessimists of science and technology also pointed out the limitations of technological progress in economic effectiveness. Although the new patents seem to be huge, they are not comparable to the billions of dollars of research funding invested behind them. The increase in human life expectancy has slowed. Medical progress is disappointing, and many diseases such as cancer are still difficult to cure.

A study shows that the per capita innovation rate peaked in 1873 and then declined. It is estimated that the current economic limit of science and technology has reached 85%, and is expected to reach 95% by 2038.

However, major innovation opportunities remain: increasing crop yields to feed global humans, developing affordable sustainable energy and power storage options, treating deadly diseases, protecting scarce goods, and improving logistics to make more efficient use of available resources.

The German thinker Walter Benjamin described a chess machine called Turk, "an automated machine that can handle the opponent's moves freely." The device features a puppet wearing a Turkish costume sitting in front of the board and in the mouth. Still carrying a hookah. Some mirrors make people mistakenly think that this device is transparent from different directions. The truth is that a hunchback chess player sits inside and guides the puppet's hand to play chess through the rope. Benjamin used this story to reveal a scam in a profound way. This chess-making doll is not a technological miracle, but a complex scam driven by other forces. (惜辰)

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